The exchange rate worries a short-term shock stabilized or soothing-步步高i606

The exchange rate worries relieve A shares or short-term will shock stabilized sina finance Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors are using the jinbailin consulting Qin Hong during the Spring Festival, the global capital market volatility, the political situation in the round edge, so market participants on the stock market after the Spring Festival A produced worries. However, on the one hand because of the global stock market rebounded sharply on Friday, regained some lost ground, on the other hand, the RMB exchange rate stable, short-term A shares fell the lack of new catalyst. Therefore, the trend of the first trading week of monkey should not be too pessimistic. Stable exchange rate, A shares usher in a stable opportunity, from the past trend, A share market and the external market does exist some one-to-one correspondence. However, only when the cause of the external market slump and A share market weak logic formed resonance, only the formation of the peripheral market fell, A shares down the trend of the trend. But the trend fluctuated in the external market during the Spring Festival, the main cause is the global economic slump, especially the lower than expected economic recovery in the United States and the European debt crisis fears rise, so the major European bank stocks fell sharply and become a driving force of the global stock market volatility. Such incentives just show that the RMB exchange rate has stabilized opportunity. One of the reasons is because the U.S. economic recovery than expected, means that reduce the probability of further dollar interest rates, emerging markets including China, the trend of slowdown in capital outflows, therefore, increase the stability of RMB exchange rate. On the other hand is the global economic slump and waves in regional politics, but more prominent in our country economy, capital security advantages, therefore, the basis of continued depreciation of the RMB does not exist. On the contrary, as China’s economic structure reform and strengthen the Chinese 2015 devaluation of the RMB products export competitive advantage and other factors, the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate further solid. The inducement of A stock market to adjust the trend since 2016 is mainly the RMB exchange rate at the beginning of the January 2016 slump, so that market participants worried about capital outflows, capital and concern across the A stock market. Therefore, with the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, it means that the reason for the further collapse of A shares is eliminated, or that the catalyst for further decline has been eliminated. In this context, the probability of stabilization of A shares indeed increased significantly. The foundation is not solid. To stabilize rebound but this does not mean that the A stock market will usher in a wave of the larger market bounced up, mainly because of the current A shares of the capital side is not overly optimistic. Although the pressure of capital outflow has been weakened, the consequences of the continued slump in the second half of 2015 are still serious. First, because of the continued slump, the elimination of a group of active funds, aggressive funds. Especially the trend continued to fall with the previous A adjust the A-share market trend is not the same, because of the continuing slump is with leverage, so aggressive is the elimination of active funds rather than weakening the strength. Therefore, the current A shares the lack of aggressive active funds, it will not be dashed the K-line form. Two is because of the exchange rate stability theory

汇率之忧舒缓 A股短线或将震荡回稳 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   ⊙金百临咨询 秦洪   春节期间,全球资本市场大幅震荡,边缘政治局势再起波澜,使得市场参与各方对春节后的A股市场走势产生了担忧情绪。不过,一方面由于上周五全球股市大幅回升,收复了些许失地,另一方面则是人民币汇率趋于稳定,A股短线大跌缺乏新的催化剂。所以,对猴年第一个交易周的走势不宜过于悲观。   汇率平稳 A股迎来企稳契机   从以往走势来看,A股市场与外围市场的确存在着一定的一一对应关系。但是,只有当外围市场暴跌的诱因与A股市场疲软逻辑形成共振时,方才形成外围市场跌、A股跌的跟风态势。而就春节期间外围市场的宽幅震荡走势来说,它们的诱因主要是全球经济不振,尤其是美国经济复苏低于预期以及欧债危机的担忧再起,所以,欧洲主要银行股大幅下跌进而成为全球股市震荡的驱动力。   如此的诱因恰恰说明了人民币汇率有了企稳的契机。一方面是因为美国经济复苏低于预期,意味着美元进一步加息的概率降低,包括我国在内的新兴市场的资本外流趋势放缓,因此,人民币汇率的稳定性大增。另一方面则是全球经济的不振以及区域政治局势的波澜,反而更加突出我国经济、资本的安全优势,因此,人民币继续贬值的基础并不存在。相反,随着我国经济结构改革以及2015年人民币贬值强化了中国制造产品的出口竞争优势等因素,人民币汇率稳定的基础进一步扎实。   而2016年以来的A股市场调整走势的诱因主要是人民币汇率在2016年1月初的不振,从而使得市场参与者担心资本的外流,进而担忧整个A股市场的资金面。所以,随着人民币汇率的企稳,也就意味着A股进一步暴跌的诱因消除,或者说进一步下跌的催化剂已消除。在此背景下,A股企稳的概率的确大增。   企稳而已 大幅反弹的基础不扎实   不过,这并不等于A股市场会迎来一波力度较大的弹升行情,主要是因为当前A股的资金面并不宜过于乐观。虽然资本外流的压力减弱,但是,2015年下半年的持续暴跌所带来的后果还是蛮严重的。一是因为持续暴跌,消灭了一批又一批的活跃资金、进取型资金。尤其是此次的持续暴跌走势与以往A股市场的调整走势不一样,因为此次持续暴跌是带杠杆的,所以,进取型的活跃资金是消灭而不是减弱实力。因此,当前A股缺乏进取型的活跃资金,也就不会出现猛打猛冲的K线形态。   二是因为汇率稳定的基础在增强,但是,过于宽松的货币政策会削弱本币的坚挺基础。因此,去年四季度后市场参与者一直预期的降准、降息政策一直未能够出台。而且,在当前错综复杂的国际经济政治环境的大背景下,在猴年春节后也不会迅速出台新的货币宽松政策。如此就意味着A股市场所背靠的资金面大背景,仍然不宜寄予乐观的猜测。如果资金面环境不能有效改善,那么,A股也难以出现大的有力度的弹升行情。   综上所述,对猴年的第一个交易周的判断是周一A股低开后企稳回升,然后围绕2750点或2800点一线反复拉锯、震荡,形成一个弱势平衡的震荡格局,以等待新的打破这个弱平衡的新动力的出现。   所以,在操作中,建议投资者仍不宜加大仓位,保持着50%左右的仓位。同时,仓位配置也尽量以两类个股为主,一类是2016年业绩有望大幅改善的品种,主要是受益于原料价格大幅回落、2014年至2015年持续降息所带来的财务费用降低的中游产业的相关品种,比如说钢铁、化工等。另一类则是体育、医疗服务、生物技术、旅游酒店等产业需求迅速提升的朝阳性产业股,尤其是医疗服务、生物技术产业股,它们的盈利模式清晰且产业成长空间广阔,有望成为2016年乃至后续数年的高成长股摇篮。(执业证书:A1210612020001)THE_END 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: