Morgan Stanley the dollar, euro, pound, yen, Australian and Canadian dollars Newbon week ahead-www.cqpx.cc

Morgan Stanley: the dollar, euro, pound, yen, Australian and Canadian Newbon week ahead FX168 news Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley) on Monday (February 8th) announced by the dollar and the euro, pound, yen, Australian and Canadian Newbon week outlook report. Dollar: tactical retreat neutral, we think the dollar’s decline may continue for a while. In fact, the U.S. economic data released over the past week is weak. Dudley, the New York fed, stressed the impact of tight financial conditions on the Fed’s decisions. That is to say, although the dollar is bullish for a long time, the performance of the future economic data of the United States will affect the volatility of the dollar. We don’t think that the upward trend in the dollar will have a spontaneous change, because capital outflows from emerging markets will still make the dollar stronger. Therefore, we will choose to do more things against the euro, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar. Euro: stage strong neutral, although the European Central Bank is still easing in March may be, but we see more tactical performance of the euro. The ECB’s further easing has been largely priced by the market, and the market is expected to cut interest rates by 10 basis points by Delaki. In addition, the dollar temporarily falls at the bottom of the smile curve, and it also benefits the euro. But we don’t think the strength of the euro will last too long, and the dollar will go to the right side of the smile curve, and the euro will fall again. Yen: negative interest rate scepticism and market expectations are different. We believe that the negative interest rate policy should have limited impact on the yen. Negative interest rates can not make a large number of Japanese overseas private investors carry out currency hedging transactions. Negative interest rates are unlikely to weaken the impact of the diversification of central banks’ foreign reserves on the yen. In addition, the cost of negative interest rates in the Central Bank of Japan is very high, and returns will decrease, and the valuation of currencies will rise. Therefore, we believe that the impact of the market risk factors for the yen than the Bank of Japan to change the policy rate. Sterling: the Bank of England, 9:0, looks bearish on the recent market volatility, and the Bank of England has accepted it. Although the potential inflow into the UK is declining, it has also created some problems for the UK financial services sector. And we are still more cautious about the prospects of sterling. In short terms, the pound may be affected by the volatility of the stock market and other financial markets. When capital inflows fall, Britain’s current account deficit puts pressure on the pound. So we’ll wait until the pound bounces back. C: we believe that the stage of stable neutral, in oil prices stabilize, the Fed is more cautious in the background, the Canadian stage will stabilize. But in the long run, the Canadian dollar’s bearish outlook remains unchanged. The ECB’s most promising situation has yet to emerge. Canada’s manufacturing and non staple goods trade is weak in 2015, and there is no rebound signal. In addition, the business outlook survey also shows that the employment and investment intentions of Canada are at a low level. Therefore, we will increase Guadan more than $$positions in this week’s strategy. Aud: arbitrage trading sees more growth over the past week, the dollar

摩根士丹利:美元、欧元、英镑、日元、加元及澳纽本周展望   FX168讯 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)周一(2月8日)撰文公布了美元、欧元、英镑、日元、加元及澳纽本周展望报告。内容如下:   美元:战术性回撤 中性   我们认为美元的回落或许还会持续一会。事实上,在过去一周中公布的美国经济数据是偏弱的。纽约联储杜德利强调了趋紧的金融环境对美联储决策的影响。这也就是说,虽然美元长期看涨,但美国未来经济数据的表现将影响美元的波动率。我们不认为美元的上行趋势会发生自发性改变,因新兴市场的资本流出仍将令美元更为强势。因此,我们会选择挂单做多美元兑欧元、加元和纽元。   欧元:阶段性强势 中性   虽然欧洲央行仍有在3月进一步宽松的可能,但我们战术性看多欧元表现。欧洲央行的进一步宽松已经很大程度上被市场定价了,目前市场预计德拉基会降息10个基点。此外,美元暂时性落于微笑曲线的下端,也会令欧元受益。不过,我们不认为欧元的强势会持续太久,美元会走向微笑曲线的右端,欧元会因此再度回落。   日元:负利率怀疑论 看多   和市场普遍预期的不同,我们认为负利率政策对日元的影响应该是有限的。负利率不可能令大量日本海外私人投资者进行汇市对冲交易。负利率也不可能令各国央行外储多样化对日元的影响减弱。此外,日本央行现在实施负利率的成本是很高的,回报又会减少,而货币估值会上升。因此,我们认为市场风险因素对日元的影响会比日银政策利率改变来的大。   英镑:英国央行9:0 看空   对于近期的市场波动率,英国央行能够接受,是令人感到意外的;虽然潜在流入英国的资金流在下降,对英国金融服务业也造成了一些问题。而我们对英镑的前景仍持进一步谨慎态度的。就短线而言,英镑可能受到股市和其他金融市场波动率的影响。当资本流入量下降时,英国的经常帐赤字会令英镑承压。因此,我们会等到英镑反弹时的做空机会。   加元:阶段性走稳 中性   我们认为,在油价趋稳,美联储更为谨慎的背景下,加元会阶段性走稳。但从长期来看,加元看空的观点仍未改变。加拿大央行最为希望出现的情况仍未出现。加拿大2015年制造业和非大宗商品贸易仍偏弱,且无反弹信号。此外,商业前景调查也显示,加拿大雇佣及投资意向创出危机来低位。因此,我们会在本周的策略中增加挂单做多美元 加元的仓位。   澳元:套利交易增加 看多   在过去一周中,美元 人民币中间价表现稳定。加之春节前的流动性充裕,市场波动率下降令融资套利交易得到支撑。从基本面来看,澳洲通胀和经济增长数据都意外向好,澳联储也不像以前那样鸽派。因此,我们预计澳元在短期内会继续走高。   纽元:逢高抛空 看空   此前,G10货币中空头规模最大的货币就是纽元。这也就是为什么最近几天汇价会反弹。但和市场预期进一步走高不同,我们等待做空的机会,因为新西兰经济前景并未改善。事实上,乳品价格在最近一次的拍卖中又下跌了20%。新西兰通胀仍保持低位,而新西兰联储还未认识到问题的严重性。最终,经济数据将令新西兰联储政策出现摇摆,因此我们会逢高做空。   北京时间2月8日9:22,美元指数报97.03,欧元 美元报1.1147 49,美元 日元报117.04 08,英镑 美元报1.4512 17,美元 加元报1.3886 90,澳元 美元报0.7102 03,纽元 美元报0.6639 43。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: