Yin Jianfeng excessive growth in household debt is a precursor to the crisis bleep

Yin Jianfeng: the rapid growth of household debt crisis is the precursor of Zhejiang bank chief economist Yin Jianfeng Sina Financial News 2016, Zhejiang International Finance Forum "held in Hangzhou in October 14th. Zhejiang bank chief economist Yin Jianfeng attended the meeting and speech. Yin Jianfeng believes that this year’s economic growth is not a problem of GDP achieve the goal, but the current economic rebound is "early spring", related to long-term sustainable growth of the problem has not been resolved. For example, technological progress, population aging and so on". In addition, the issue of economic growth momentum has not eased signs. Yin Jianfeng with "deleveraging" analysis, economies because of excessive leverage in the crisis there are three reasons: first, the leverage ratio rises too fast, exceed the trend value; second, the leverage ratio is disposed in the wrong department; third, the rate of increase in leverage accompanied by significant increases in asset prices. From our point of view, the first sector leverage credit resource allocation errors and increasing too fast is the state-owned enterprises — debt financing of state owned enterprises accounted for 70% of non debt financing of state owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises on the contribution of GDP is less than 50%, a smaller contribution to employment. The state-owned enterprise from the asset side, asset return rate is far lower than the state-owned enterprises and non state-owned enterprises, continued to decline, according to the current rate of return on assets of state-owned enterprises, even with debt exchange bonds in the banking market, may not be able to repay their debts. In terms of household debt, since last year, the growth rate is very fast. This year’s data show that, as of now, more than 50% of the debt financing is the residential sector, the residents of the Department of debt financing is the object of real estate. Some scholars believe that China’s household sector is a high savings rate, so even if there is a high debt crisis does not occur. But in Japan, for example, to remind the need to guard against this phenomenon. As the same high savings rate countries, Japan in the 90 years before the collapse of the bubble crisis is an important phenomenon of the sudden increase in the household sector leverage. To a crisis point of origin, five years before the crisis, Japan’s household sector debt financing growth rate is 46%, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is 44%, Greece is 58%, 45% in Spain, 36% in Italy, these countries are in the household sector leverage in a significant increase in the five years before the crisis. Since World War II, not only the real estate bubble crisis is Germany, Germany in 2009 the European debt crisis five years before the household sector debt is negative 2%. Focus on China, if the two quarter of 2006 as the base point, from the first quarter of 2007 to the present, China’s residents rose by an average of $96%, much higher than the above countries. The reason that the household sector debt growth too fast is usually the cause of the crisis is that the precursor "first, and compared to the enterprise, the household sector in the economy is really hard constraints and units, enterprises are soft constraints. Second, the family is the cell of economic, enterprises are economic organs, organs of the bad can even repair can be replaced, but the cell bad is an incurable disease. Third, the emergence of a large number of household sector debt + leverage, one of the most important reason is that the wealth distribution of the residents sector regardless相关的主题文章: